24-10-06

FERRY companies, offshore oil operators and flood- prone coastal communities in the north of Scotland are among those at the centre of a long- term weather warning issued by scientists.

A newly-launched study predicts the recent storms and severe flooding to hit parts of the region will become more frequent as the effects of climate change kicks in.
And it warns that the trend towards higher and choppier seas could lead to more ferry disruptions and downtime for offshore oil operators.

With sea levels rising, ports and settlements beside the the coast will also have to review their flood defences if they are not to suffer the consequences.
The message comes in the first annual report card issued by the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership.

The publicly-funded initiative pulls together research from throughout the UK to provide the first “idiot’s guide”-style check list of the potential dangers ahead.
Among those who contributed to the work were scientists based at The Environmental Research Institute in Thurso.

Speaking after Wednesday night’s launch in London, David Woolf, a senior researcher at the ERI, said people are going to have to get used to living with more frequent storms and flooding.

A trained oceanographer, he has particularly focused his research on the sea and wind trends off the north and west coasts of Scotland.
Dr Woolf (43) said all indications are that the recorded increase in stormy weather in recent decades is not only going to continue but become more intense.
He said it is not possible to say the trend stems from global warming.
“It might not be an inevitable consequence of global warming,” he said “It could be part of a natural cycle, but the likelihood is that there will be more stormy weather and, along with the high winds and high waves, wetter winters.”
Dr Woolf said this has obvious implications for sea-going vessels and offshore installations, including oil rigs and fish farms.
“All the engineering design standards are based on what was expected on the basis of the thelast 100 years, “ he said.
“With the new weather projections emerging, it might well be necessary to review the standards being used.”
He said that ferry companies in the Western and Northern Isles are going to have to shell out considerably more for new higher-spec vessels to minimise disruption in their schedules.
Oil installations will also have to be designed to withstand more frequent extreme conditions if shutdowns are to be minimised.
Likewise, public authorities need to reassess the resistance of coastal defences.
He said: “ There are economic issues to be faced by any individual or company making their living from the sea.”
Analysing climate change has been one of the main issues for the ERI since it opened six years ago.
Director Stuart Gibb says people who live and work along the north and west coast are all too aware of the changes that have been occurring.
But he said the report, for the first time, seeks to quantify and interpret the trends and assess the risk of various scenarios coming to pass.
Dr Gibb said: “The whole issue of climate change is rising up the political, social and economic agenda.
“We’ve a real focus on how the climate along the north and west coasts is changing and to gauge how this is affecting the environment and the people who live and work in the area.
“The message is that climate change is not something for the future. It’s something we need to deal with here and now.”

The MCCIP’s report card can be accessed via its website, mccip.org./index.html


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